私たちの物語 - お金・経済・過去ログ No.75162

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 03時09分28秒

<1503239> Robertrip

■2025年06月16日月曜日 03時06分55秒

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<1503238> Rogeliotah

■2025年06月16日月曜日 02時44分49秒

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 02時42分00秒

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- 仂亞ﾑ仂仄仆ﾑ鋸ｷ仂仗ﾑ錦�, ﾑ�ｘｼ仗仂亰于仂仍ﾑ序ｳﾑ� ﾑ亠ﾑ�ｶﾑび� ﾑ§ｮ仄ﾑτ� ﾑ§ｹ仂亢仆ﾑτ� 仗ﾑ仂弍仍亠仄ﾑ�;
- 仗ﾑ仂亰ﾑ舒ﾑ∟ｻ仂亠, 于ﾑ鋸ｱ仂亟仆仂亠ﾑ§ｼﾑびﾑ�ｲ仆亳ﾑ∟ｳﾑ�ｘｰ仂;
- 亟仂ﾑ�び�ｽ仆ﾑ鋸ｳﾑ�ｳ仆ﾑ�;
- 于ﾑ錦§ｼ从仂亠从舒ﾑ∟ｳﾑ�ｘｰ仂ﾑ舒弍仂ﾑび�.

ﾐ� 仂弍ﾑ序ｵ舒ﾑｘｳ仍ﾑ堅ｻ仂仄仗仂ﾑﾑ序ｲ从亠仂ﾑ�τ汚ｳﾑ�ｘｰ仍ﾑ序ｳﾑび�� 亞仍ﾑ�ｯ仂从仂亠仗仂亞ﾑﾑ�ｴ亠仆亳亠于于舒ﾑ� 弍亳亰仆亠ﾑ�, 亳亰ﾑτ∟ｮ亠ﾑび�� 仆亳ﾑ�ｮ, ﾑ�ｘｼ弍ﾑ� 仗ﾑ亠亟仍仂亢亳ﾑび� 弍仂仍亠亠ﾑ采��ｳ从ﾑｘｶ于仆仂亠亳从仂仄仗仍亠从ﾑ§ｻ仂亠ﾑ亠ﾑ�ｳ仆亳亠. ﾐ椈ｯﾑ舒ﾑｘｶ于ﾑ�ｶﾑ�� 于ﾑ采び� 从仂仄仗舒仆亳ﾑ�, 于ﾑ� 仗仂仍ﾑτ∟ｮ亠ﾑｘｳ于仂亰仄仂亢仆仂ﾑ�び� ﾑ�腰ｸ仂仆仂仄亳ﾑび� 亟亠仆ﾑ堅ｱ亳亳于ﾑ亠仄ﾑ�, 于亠亟ﾑ� 仗亠ﾑ亠亞仂于仂ﾑﾑ� 于亠亟ﾑτび�� 仆舒仗ﾑﾑ序ｺﾑτ� ﾑ� 仄亠仆亠亟亢亠ﾑ仂仄. ﾐ�亠亞ﾑ�ｹﾑ肖仆仂弍ﾑ�ｲ亠ﾑｘｳ仗仂仍ﾑτ∟ｮﾑび� 仂ﾑび∟ｳﾑび� 仂仗ﾑ仂亟亠仍舒仆仆仂亶ﾑ舒弍仂ﾑｘｳ, ﾑ�ｘｼ弍ﾑ� 于亳亟亠ﾑび� ﾑ亠亰ﾑ�ｹﾑ袴ｘｮﾑ�.

ﾐ囗ｼ仄舒仆亟舒, 从仂ﾑｘｼﾑ舒ﾑ� 弍ﾑ�ｲ亠ﾑ� ﾑびﾑ�ｲ亳ﾑび袴�� 仆舒亟于舒ﾑ�ｶ仄仗ﾑ仂亠从ﾑｘｼ仄, ﾑ§ｼﾑ�ｘｼ亳ﾑ� ﾑｘｼ仍ﾑ堅ｸ仂亳亰仗ﾑ仂ﾑ�ｳﾑ�§ｶ仂仆舒仍仂于, 亰仆舒从仂仄ﾑ錦� ﾑ§ｼ于ﾑ§ｳ仄亳仆ﾑﾐ夷術§ｮ仄亳. ﾐ佯§ｽ仂仍ﾑ堅ｵﾑ�ｳﾑび�� 仆亠ﾑ�ｮ弍仍仂仆仆ﾑ鋸ｷ仗仂亟ﾑ�ｼ亟从ﾑ舒弍仂ﾑｘｳ, 舒于ﾑｘｼﾑﾑ§ｸ亳亠仄亠ﾑｘｼ亟亳从亳, 于亠亟ﾑ� 从舒亢亟ﾑ鋸ｷﾑ§ｹﾑτ∟ｮ亶亳仆亟亳于亳亟ﾑ�ｮ仍亠仆. ﾐ篇§ｹ亳亳于ﾑ� ﾑ亠ﾑ�ｶ仍亳仗ﾑ仂亟于亳仆ﾑτび� ﾑ§ｰ仂亶弍亳亰仆亠ﾑ�, ﾑｘｼﾑ§ｸ仂ﾑ亠亠仂弍ﾑ舒ﾑｘｶﾑｘｳﾑ�� 于舒亞亠仆ﾑび�ｘｰ仂束Baliyants損. ﾐ曝ｹﾑ� ﾑ采ｘｼ亞仂仆亠仂弍ﾑ�ｼ亟亳仄仂亰舒仗仂仍仆亳ﾑび� 亰舒ﾑ序ｰ从ﾑ�. ﾐ利ｮ于ﾑ§ｳ于ﾑ亠仄ﾑ� ﾑ舒弍仂ﾑび� 仗仂ﾑ序ｰ亳仍仂ﾑ�� 弍仂仍ﾑ袴�ｼ亠从仂仍亳ﾑ∟ｳﾑ�ｘｰ仂仗仂ﾑ�ｘｼﾑ序ｻ仆ﾑ錦� 从仍亳亠仆ﾑｘｼ于亳仗仂仍仂亢亳ﾑｘｳ仍ﾑ堅ｻﾑ鋸ｳ仂ﾑｘｵﾑ鋸ｰﾑ�. ﾐ著ｼﾑ§ｽ仂仍ﾑ堅ｵﾑ�ｷﾑｘｳﾑ�� 亳于ﾑ� ﾑτ§ｹﾑ�ｱ舒仄亳仗ﾑ仂ﾑ�ｳﾑ�§ｶ仂仆舒仍ﾑ堅ｻ仂亞仂舒亞亠仆ﾑび�ｘｰ舒, 从仂ﾑｘｼﾑ仂亠ﾑ�ｳ仆亳ﾑ� 从仍亳亠仆ﾑｘｼ于亳仆亳从仂亞亟舒亳ﾑ� 仆亠仗仂亟于仂亟亳ﾑ�.

<1503236> Rogeliotah

■2025年06月16日月曜日 02時29分24秒

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<1503235> Robertrip

■2025年06月16日月曜日 02時01分34秒

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 01時51分59秒

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 01時46分18秒

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<1503232> Kimberlyhiz

■2025年06月16日月曜日 01時40分50秒

<1503231> Michaelheica

■2025年06月16日月曜日 01時39分10秒

There窶冱 a 窶枠host hurricane窶� in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
<a href=https://www.rcn62.ru/131024/novosti-vasilenko-roman-poslednie-novosti/>ﾐｳﾐｵﾐｹﾐｿﾐｾﾑﾐｽﾐｾﾐｳﾐｵﾐｵﾐｹ</a>
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week窶巴ut don窶冲 panic.

It窶冱 the season窶冱 first 窶徃host hurricane.窶�

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed 窶徃host storms窶� or 窶徃host hurricanes,窶� these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models 窶� computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions 窶� but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It窶冱 one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or 窶徠uirks窶� where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn窶冲 alone in this 窶� all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance 窶� but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season 窶� June through November.

It窶冱 exactly what窶冱 been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that窶冱 why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models 窶� like Europe窶冱 ECMWF, Canada窶冱 CMC or the United Kingdom窶冱 UKM 窶� is because that窶冱 exactly what it窶冱 programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA窶冱 Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a 窶忤eak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,窶� according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible 窶� over the oceans 窶� it窶冱 more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren窶冲 built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don窶冲 show a tropical system until they窶决e more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS窶� favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That窶冱 because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 01時31分11秒

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 00時56分04秒

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■2025年06月16日月曜日 00時40分52秒

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Outsourcing of accounting services is the transfer of your accounting <a href=https://om-saratov.ru/blogi/22-july-2022-i158276-reviziya-zarabotnoi-platy-kog>https://om-saratov.ru/blogi/22-july-2022-i158276-reviziya-zarabotnoi-platy-kog</a>

<1503222> scytiz

■2025年06月16日月曜日 00時07分33秒

<1503221> SyedUniob

■2025年06月16日月曜日 00時00分28秒

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