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■2025年06月15日日曜日 15時28分10秒

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<1503161> Michaelheica

■2025年06月15日日曜日 13時43分00秒

There窶冱 a 窶枠host hurricane窶� in the forecast. It could help predict a real one ﾐｿﾐｾﾑﾐｽﾐｾﾐｳﾑﾑσｿﾐｿﾐｾﾐｲﾐｾﾐｵﾐｶﾐｵﾑ�ひｾﾐｺ A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week窶巴ut don窶冲 panic. It窶冱 the season窶冱 first 窶徃host hurricane.窶� Similar hype plays out every hurricane season especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked worst-case-scenario model run goes viral but more often than not will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed 窶徃host storms窶� or 窶徃host hurricanes窶� these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models 窶� computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions 窶� but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System also known as the GFS or American model run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It窶冱 one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or 窶徠uirks窶� where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn窶冲 alone in this 窶� all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance 窶� but it is notorious for doing so. For example the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year but is most frequent during hurricane season 窶� June through November. It窶冱 exactly what窶冱 been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another and that窶冱 why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models 窶� like Europe窶冱 ECMWF Canada窶冱 CMC or the United Kingdom窶冱 UKM 窶� is because that窶冱 exactly what it窶冱 programmed to do according to Alicia Bentley the global verification project lead of NOAA窶冱 Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a 窶忤eak parameterized cumulus convection scheme窶� according to Bentley. In plain language that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible 窶� over the oceans 窶� it窶冱 more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren窶冲 built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon and so they don窶冲 show a tropical system until they窶决e more confident the right conditions are in place which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS窶� favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That窶冱 because of the Central American gyre: a large disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.