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私たちの物語 - 嗜癖・依存症・過去ログ No.300
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June 7 2012This is a startling assertion by the presumptive GOP candidate which he has made in several forms in recent weeksDavid Corn of Mother Jones when Romney made a victory speech in New Hampshire arguing "With Obamacare fully installed government will come to control half the economy and we will have effectively ceased to be a free enterprise society" Corn quoted a number of economic experts finding fault with Romneys reasoning such as former Ronald Reagan adviser Bruce Bartlett saying "this analysis is so stupid it is hard to know where to begin"FactCheckorg when Romney had tweaked the language somewhat but also found it wanting saying it was "a pure partisan fantasy" and "patently false and misleading"With such harsh reviews one would think that Romney might drop the assertion from his speeches But now a new iteration has appeared so we will examine itThe FactsThe Romney campaign says this line is based on three separate claims First that in 2011 government expenditures to 3734 percent of the gross domestic product Second that with the presidents health plan in place in 2020 government expenditures climb to 3918 percent Finally private health-care expenditures 1003 percent of GDP in 2020 so adding that altogether gets you to 4921 percentHmm Someone certainly spent a lot of time stitching those statistics together But does it really add up to anything insightfulFirst note how Romney spoke of government "at all levels" that is code for the fact that he is not only counting federal spending but also adding in state and local government spending "Our point is that government at all levels plays too large a role in the economy so the correct measure to look at is how much government consumes" said Romney senior adviser Eric FehrnstromExperts however disagree on whether one can use the statistics cited by the Romney campaign to speak of "government consumption" because it includes transfer payments such as Social Security "Collecting taxes from one private party and transferring the revenue to another private party is not government consuming" said of the Brookings InstitutionHe also noted that even if one accepted the figure it is several points above normal "because GDP is below our potential or full-employment output and spending is inflated by such recession-related spending as unemployment insurance Normally the spending share would be below 35 percent of GDP" So this would affect the second part of Romneys claim in which he added a future prediction of health-care spending to the 2011 figure a budget expert at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities said that while federal outlays in 2011 amounted to 241 percent of GDP transfer payments were 157 percent and interest payments were 15 percent of GDP leaving just 69 percent of GDP "that can reasonably be thought of as federal consumption (purchases of goods and services) in 2011"However of the Cato Institute said that government-expenditure figure is a "fairly conventional number" to use to indicate the total burden of government spending He noted that data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development () used similar figures when comparing "total government outlays" of different OECD members (The United States it should be noted had the eighth lowest level out of 36 members)But Romney goes way too far when he adds private health-care expenditures to this total and claims that it shows the "reach" of government Mitchell no fan of the health-care law politely called the concept "novel" As he put it "I agree that private health-care outlays are heavily influenced by government policy but that was already the case before Obamacare Yes Obamacare will make it worse but I dont think it is justifiable to count that 1003 pct of GDP as private before Obamacare and government after Obamacare""What Governor Romney said is that government will reach half the economy" Fehrnstrom said "Obamacare requires everyone in the country to have insurance coverage that will pay for their health care allows Washington to define what that coverage must consist of and how it will be priced creates a new board to preference some treatments over others and even levies new taxes to pay for it all"Using the word "reach" appears to be a stretch Under Romneys definition a wide variety of industries such as banking or housing should also be counted as part of this government-controlled economyThe Pinocchio TestIn essence Romney has taken a debatable assertion that government "consumes" 37 percent of the economy and then hyped it with a nonsensical non sequitur that the health-care law extends the "reach" of government to 50 percent of the economy Clearly the Romney campaign does not want to abandon this claim despite the poor reviews it has received from various experts But it makes little sense and is frankly a bit foolish especially for a candidate whose signature legislative achievement as Massachusetts governor was to enact a health-care law that at the state level included insurance exchanges Medicaid expansion an individual mandate and other provisions that he now claims extend the "reach" of governmentRomney should drop this line from his speeches No amount of tweaking will get it rightFour Pinocchios()Check out our candidate Follow The Fact Checker on and friend us on Track each presidential candidate's
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